Coupe du Monde 2026 : 5 pronostics pour les derniers matchs de la phase de groupes

The final set of World Cup group stage games is here already, which means some teams have everything to play for, some have nothing to play for and many have something in between.

Team motivations aren't always clear. How much do they actually care about a specific Round-of-32 matchup or path to the quarterfinals? How important is resting players? What about protecting them from a potential yellow-card suspension?

These questions are somewhat murky, so I tend to stick with games and teams that have clearer reasons to go for it (or not). I'm not touching games like Turkiye-United States, with Turkiye eliminated and the U.S. locked into the group's top spot.

Remember that not only do the top two teams in each group advance, but also the best eight (of 12) third-place teams. Typically in tournaments like this, third-place teams with four points get through, as do teams with three points and a not-terrible goal differential. So teams with two points from two games may be content with another draw, for example.

There are a lot of moving parts in these scenarios, and things could always change before kickoff, particularly for those playing later in the week. If you want to wait until the picture is clearer, that's understandable.

Here's what I'm playing right now:

Wednesday

Switzerland win (+140) vs. Canada

I admit that Canada may have more motivation in this one, needing a win or draw to win the group, which would mean playing the Round of 32 (and a potential Round-of-16 game) in Vancouver. 

However, Canada also has serious injury questions. Alphonso Davies, the team's best attacker, likely isn't healthy yet. Moise Bombito, the team's best defender, played 45 minutes versus Qatar but isn't fully fit while recovering from a broken leg. One starting midfielder (Ismael Kone) is out with a broken leg, and the other (Stephen Eustaquio) is just getting back to training on Tuesday. 

That's a lot of holes that a veteran team like Switzerland can exploit. It's possible that Switzerland will settle for a draw that puts both teams through, but I think the Swiss want to win the group, so I'll take them to win this game.

Brazil -1.5 (+105) vs. Scotland

As mentioned previously, I'm not convinced Brazil has the midfield to make a deep run in this tournament, but I do think they're still far better than a Scotland team that is not as good as its traveling fans.

With Morocco playing already-eliminated Haiti, Brazil will probably need a win by multiple goals to maintain its two-goal advantage in goal difference over Morocco. Scotland would happily take a draw to get to four total points, and even a loss by one or even two goals might be sufficient to advance eventually, though Scotland would have to endure a sleepless night or two while waiting. 

I expect Scotland to take a conservative approach as in the Haiti and Morocco games, and I expect Brazil to take advantage of that with an attack that has plenty of quality in Vinicius Junior and Co. 

Thursday

Japan win (-105) vs. Sweden

Japan needs a win or draw to guarantee a spot in the knockout stage and could win the group if Netherlands drops points against Tunisia. Sweden needs a win to go through with certainty, but even a narrow loss is probably enough to grab a third-place spot.

The Group F winner plays the Group C runner-up in the Round of 32, while the Group F runner-up plays the Group C winner. Those two Group C opponents will be known before kickoff, most likely a combination of Brazil and Morocco. I'm not convinced there's a big difference between those teams, and the Group F winner will likely have a better potential Round-of-16 matchup, so shooting for first place is worthwhile.

But really, I'm taking Samurai Blue because they're much better than Sweden. Both teams routed Tunisia, but Japan was far more dominant, with 61% possession and 2.1 expected goals, compared to Sweden's 49% possession and 1.3 expected goals. Japan also went toe-to-toe with the Dutch in a 2-2 draw, and Sweden was smoked 5-1 by Netherlands.

Sweden made the World Cup via a Nations League backdoor after a dreadful defensive showing in qualifying, and the defense hasn't gotten better. I expect Japan to pick apart the Sweden midfield and backline and win this one fairly easily.

Friday

Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia draw (+240)

At its first World Cup, Cape Verde has already drawn 2010 champion Spain and two-time champion Uruguay, meaning a point in this match will probably get the Blue Sharks through at least as a top third-place team. If Spain beats Uruguay, a draw would grant Cape Verde a second-place Group H finish and automatic advancement.

Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia had similar underlying numbers against Spain and Uruguay, each posting about one expected goal while conceding four. Saudi Arabia was a bit more attacking-minded, and Cape Verde defended better. 

To me, the defensive strength matters more in this matchup. Cape Verde might have another offensive gear or might simply defend and dare Saudi Arabia to score. I don't think the Green Falcons can do that effectively. I don't mind playing Cape Verde to win (+145), but given that a draw will likely be enough, I'm taking that before it gets shorter.

Saturday

Algeria-Austria under 1.5 goals (+150)

If that price on under 1.5 goals looks unusual, it is! The draw price is even stranger at +120, and it will probably get shorter before Saturday.

The reason is that both these teams are on three points, and four points will almost certainly get a team into the knockout stage. Even three points might do it, and these teams will know exactly what is necessary, since they're in the final group to kick off simultaneous games. 

Plus the Group J runner-up will probably face Spain in the Round of 32, while the third-place team is most likely to play the Group B runner-up (Canada/Switzerland) or the Group G winner (Egypt/Belgium/Iran).

So it's possible we'll see an echo of 1982's famed Disgrace of Gijon, which also involved these countries. At that World Cup, West Germany lazily beat Austria 1-0 on the final group day, and both advanced ahead of Algeria. The incident prompted simultaneous group games as we know them.

I don't expect performances that drastic in this game, but both teams could easily play it safe in both lineup and aggression.