Some US players believe they can win the World Cup. Are they deluded?

USA’s victory over Australia clinched the team a place in the knockout stage.Photograph: Tom Jones/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

The United States can win the World Cup. The US players say so. So does Zlatan Ibrahimović. Because you are a smart Guardian reader, you know that, theoretically, any team who are not yet eliminated can win the World Cup. And you know that this US team have won their opening two World Cup games convincingly, securing the top spot in Group D and a place in the knockout round with a game to spare. Making the World Cup final, and winning it, is in the realm of possibility.

But can they? Within the team, there has been belief they can go all the way for some time. US head coach Mauricio Pochettino laid down the marker in his opening press conference, and has stuck to his belief. His players have followed suit. But now, even famous pundits with outsized egos are saying the US can shock the world and capture the men’s World Cup for the first time on home soil.

Has everyone gone nuts? Well, yes and no.

Why the US should be confident …

Momentum. As NFL Hall of Famer Ray Lewis once said: “People don’t know how huge momentum is. Momentum is huge.” The US turned some heads with solid pre-World Cup performances, but the two wins to start the World Cup have seen them reach another level. A 4-1 win over Paraguay matched the United States’ biggest-ever margin of victory at a men’s World Cup. Partnerships in defense, midfield, and up top have blossomed at just the right time, allowing players to perform with a relaxed freedom seldom seen from a US team at any time, much less at a World Cup. Right now, this team is in the zone, a huge advantage as they prepare for the knockout stage.

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Home-field advantage. The massive, passionate crowds at US games have been a big part of the story, with huge cheers greeting major moments and full-stadium sing-alongs carrying on the good vibes. Pochettino and his players have spoken repeatedly about how much of a boost it has been to play in front of a home crowd, and their opponents have acknowledged that the atmosphere has made it difficult to establish footholds in the game. But if you still doubt the power of home-field advantage, consider this: in the men’s World Cup’s previous 22 editions, the host nation have won the whole thing six times. An additional seven times, a host nation has made the semi-finals. That means that a host nation has made the final four of a World Cup nearly 60% of the time. It would be more unusual for the US not to be at least within touching distance of the sport’s showpiece.

Coaching. This is Pochettino’s first attempt at international management, but he has no shortage of experience raising the level of his teams, gearing them up for huge moments. As Tottenham Hotspur manager, he led the team to a brilliant season in 2018-19, which included a run to the Champions League final. He has coached big players in big moments at Chelsea and PSG. And more pertinently, the system he has implemented with this team has them humming at the right time.

Then again …

They haven’t faced a top-class team yet. With all due respect to Paraguay and Australia, the type of teams the US would need to beat to win the World Cup are a level (or two, or three) above their first two opponents. In the US’s side of the knockout bracket is the winner of Group H, who will be Spain or Uruguay unless results go a truly unexpected direction over the next few days. In the last-16 they could face Belgium, who the US lost handily to in a March friendly. The difference between teams of that caliber and their two group opponents so far is huge. Making that step up could be too much for this US team.

Lack of elite talent. Yes, Christian Pulisic is a great player, well on his way to being the best the US has ever produced. And yes he was displaying otherworldly form in the first half against Paraguay before leaving with a calf injury. Weston McKennie, too, has been in tremendous form. But nobody on the US roster would be seriously considered to be in the top 10-20 players in the world (or, if the Guardian’s expert panel is to believed, anyone in the top 100). Pochettino admitted as much in the March international window. Every World Cup champion has boasted at least two or three of those players on their roster. In time, the US may well boast that kind of talent. But not at this World Cup.

Pressure. There are more American players at top European clubs than ever before, which means this crop have played in more high-pressure occasions than their predecessors. But the World Cup is a different beast, and the knockout round in particular can be a brutal stage on which small mistakes and lapses can – and will be – punished. The pressure to perform on this stage has gotten to many of the best teams in the world. It may still affect the US in the same way.

So, can they do it?

Who cares? US fans should just enjoy the ride. This US men’s national team are playing better than they ever have at a World Cup, and it’s happening at home. That should be enough to get any fan energized, excited, and dreaming of more – now, or generations from now.