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World Cup Pulse
Spain
0–0
FT
Cape Verde
Jun 15, 2026, 4:00 PM UTCMercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta
Model estimateModel missed it
89%SpainDraw 9%Cape Verde1%

Most likely 2–0

Model read

The model reads this as a clear edge for Spain. With Elo 509 points apart (Spain 2191, Cape Verde 1682), it estimates 89% / 9% / 1% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 13% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ SpainCape Verde →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 22%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score13%
  • Spain clean sheet86%
  • Cape Verde clean sheet8%
  • Spain win-to-nil79%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Spain0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Cape Verde0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.57 vs 0.15). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2369447830 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Lopsided · 66/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Spain
  • D0–0vs Cape Verde
Cape Verde
  • D0–0@ Spain

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Spain · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D0–0Cape Verde

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Spain vs Cape Verde?
Our Elo model estimates Spain 89%, draw 9%, Cape Verde 1% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Spain vs Cape Verde kick off?
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Spain vs Cape Verde played?
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.