Transparent Elo win probabilities for every fixture
What the model expects
Every number here is summed from one honest Elo model — win probabilities, the most-likely scoreline, and how each pick has held up. Model estimates, never betting odds.
Model estimate — Elo only, not betting oddsNext match
Group F · Jun 20 · Houston Netherlands vs Sweden
1–0likely
Netherlands60%
Draw23%
Sweden17%
Netherlands clean sheet 44%Both teams to score 47%Leaning
See the full Netherlands vs Sweden predictionOur model · Elo→PoissonElo model · as of Jun 17, 2026
60% NetherlandsDraw 23%17% Sweden
Our model · Elo→Poisson
Model track record
32 outcomes graded59%
Hit rate
0.55
Brier
Every fixture, by the numbers
Our model · Elo→Poisson72 fixtures
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