Most likely 1–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Netherlands. With Elo 188 points apart (Netherlands 2009, Sweden 1821), it estimates 60% / 23% / 17% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 47% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score47%
- Netherlands clean sheet44%
- Sweden clean sheet17%
- Netherlands win-to-nil36%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Netherlands0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Sweden0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.77 vs 0.83). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 3771557306 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 14/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D2–2vs Japan
- W5–1vs Tunisia
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Bart VerbruggenBrighton & Hove AlbionAge 23
29/0 - 13
Robin RoefsSunderlandAge 23
1/0 - 23
Mark FlekkenBayer LeverkusenAge 33
12/0
- 2
Lutsharel GeertruidaSunderlandAge 25
21/0 - 4
Virgil van DijkCLiverpoolAge 34
92/12 - 5
Nathan AkéManchester CityAge 31
59/5 - 6
Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton & Hove AlbionAge 26
12/0 - 12
Mats WiefferBrighton & Hove AlbionAge 26
15/1 - 15
Micky van de VenTottenham HotspurAge 25
21/1 - 22
Denzel DumfriesInter MilanAge 30
72/11 - 25
Jorrel HatoChelseaAge 20
8/0
- 3
Marten de RoonAtalantaAge 35
43/1 - 7
Justin KluivertBournemouthAge 27
12/0 - 8
Ryan GravenberchLiverpoolAge 24
27/1 - 14
Tijjani ReijndersManchester CityAge 27
32/7 - 16
Guus TilPSV EindhovenAge 28
7/1 - 20
Teun KoopmeinersJuventusAge 28
28/3 - 21
Frenkie de JongBarcelonaAge 29
66/2 - 26
Quinten TimberMarseilleAge 25
11/1
- 9
Wout WeghorstAjaxAge 33
52/14 - 10
Memphis DepayCorinthiansAge 32
109/55 - 11
Cody GakpoLiverpoolAge 27
50/21 - 17
Noa LangGalatasarayAge 27
15/3 - 18
Donyell MalenRomaAge 27
53/13 - 19
Brian BrobbeySunderlandAge 24
12/1 - 24
Crysencio SummervilleWest Ham UnitedAge 24
2/0
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Netherlands vs Sweden?
- Our Elo model estimates Netherlands 60%, draw 23%, Sweden 17% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Netherlands vs Sweden kick off?
- Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Netherlands vs Sweden played?
- NRG Stadium in Houston.