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World Cup Pulse
Saudi Arabia
1–1
FT
Uruguay
Jun 15, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCHard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens
Model estimateModel missed it
13%Saudi ArabiaDraw 21%Uruguay66%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Uruguay. With Elo 243 points apart (Saudi Arabia 1713, Uruguay 1956), it estimates 13% / 21% / 66% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 43% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ Saudi ArabiaUruguay →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 14%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score43%
  • Saudi Arabia clean sheet15%
  • Uruguay clean sheet50%
  • Uruguay win-to-nil43%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Saudi Arabia0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Uruguay0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.69 vs 1.91). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3232492340 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 21/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Saudi Arabia
  • D1–1vs Uruguay
Uruguay
  • D1–1@ Saudi Arabia

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Saudi Arabia · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D1–1Uruguay

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?
Our Elo model estimates Saudi Arabia 13%, draw 21%, Uruguay 66% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay kick off?
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay played?
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.