Most likely 1–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward France. With Elo 252 points apart (France 2145, Senegal 1893), it estimates 67% / 21% / 12% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 42% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score42%
- France clean sheet51%
- Senegal clean sheet15%
- France win-to-nil44%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- France0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Senegal0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.93 vs 0.67). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 71622314 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 23/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- W3–1vs Senegal
- L1–3@ France
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
France · 1W · 0D · 0L
- W3–1Senegal
Squad · 26 players
Who featured
From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.
- 1
Brice SambaRennesAge 32
4/0 - 16
Mike MaignanMilanAge 30
40/0 - 23
Robin RisserLensAge 21
0/0
- 2
Malo GustoChelseaAge 23
11/0 - 3
Lucas DigneAston VillaAge 32
58/0 - 4
Dayot UpamecanoBayern MunichAge 27
38/2 - 5
Jules KoundéBarcelonaAge 27
48/0 - 15
Ibrahima KonatéLiverpoolAge 27
28/0 - 17
William SalibaArsenalAge 25
32/0 - 19
Théo HernandezAl-HilalAge 28
44/2 - 21
Lucas HernandezParis Saint-GermainAge 30
42/0 - 26
Maxence LacroixCrystal PalaceAge 26
4/0
- 6
Manu KonéRomaAge 25
14/0 - 8
Aurélien TchouaméniReal MadridAge 26
46/3 - 13
N'Golo KantéFenerbahçeAge 35
69/2 - 14
Adrien RabiotMilanAge 31
59/7 - 18
Warren Zaïre-EmeryParis Saint-GermainAge 20
11/1 - 24
Rayan CherkiManchester CityAge 22
7/2 - 25
Maghnes AklioucheMonacoAge 24
9/1
- 7
Ousmane DembéléParis Saint-GermainAge 29
59/7 - 9
Marcus ThuramInter MilanAge 28
34/3 - 10
Kylian MbappéCReal MadridAge 27
98/56 - 11
Michael OliseBayern MunichAge 24
17/7 - 12
Bradley BarcolaParis Saint-GermainAge 23
20/3 - 20
Désiré DouéParis Saint-GermainAge 21
7/2 - 22
Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal PalaceAge 28
4/2
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win France vs Senegal?
- Our Elo model estimates France 67%, draw 21%, Senegal 12% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does France vs Senegal kick off?
- Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is France vs Senegal played?
- MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.