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World Cup Pulse
Tunisia
vs
Upcoming
Japan
Jun 21, 2026, 4:00 AM UTCEstadio BBVA · Guadalupe
Model estimate
8%TunisiaDraw 18%Japan74%

Most likely 0–2

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Japan. With Elo 308 points apart (Tunisia 1687, Japan 1995), it estimates 8% / 18% / 74% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–2, with both teams to score 36% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ TunisiaJapan →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–2 · 16%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score36%
  • Tunisia clean sheet13%
  • Japan clean sheet59%
  • Japan win-to-nil51%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Tunisia0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Japan0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.53 vs 2.07). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3123107471 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 33/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Tunisia
  • L1–5@ Sweden
Japan
  • D2–2@ Netherlands

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Tunisia vs Japan?
Our Elo model estimates Tunisia 8%, draw 18%, Japan 74% — most likely 0–2. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Tunisia vs Japan kick off?
Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Tunisia vs Japan played?
Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.