Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 56 points apart (Belgium 1945, Iran 1889), it estimates 43% / 26% / 30% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score52%
- Belgium clean sheet31%
- Iran clean sheet24%
- Belgium win-to-nil24%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Belgium0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Iran0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.44 vs 1.16). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 4191672877 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 2/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D1–1vs Egypt
- D2–2vs New Zealand
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Thibaut CourtoisReal MadridAge 34
109/0 - 12
Senne LammensManchester UnitedAge 23
2/0 - 13
Mike PendersStrasbourgAge 20
0/0
- 2
Zeno DebastSporting CPAge 22
26/1 - 3
Arthur TheateEintracht FrankfurtAge 26
33/1 - 4
Brandon MecheleClub BruggeAge 33
9/1 - 5
Maxim De CuyperBrighton & Hove AlbionAge 25
19/4 - 15
Thomas MeunierLilleAge 34
80/10 - 16
Koni De WinterMilanAge 24
8/0 - 18
Joaquin SeysClub BruggeAge 21
5/0 - 21
Timothy CastagneFulhamAge 30
63/2 - 25
Nathan NgoyLilleAge 23
4/0
- 6
Axel WitselGironaAge 37
138/12 - 7
Kevin De BruyneNapoliAge 34
119/37 - 8
Youri TielemansCAston VillaAge 29
85/13 - 19
Diego MoreiraStrasbourgAge 21
3/0 - 20
Hans VanakenClub BruggeAge 33
34/7 - 22
Alexis SaelemaekersMilanAge 26
24/2 - 23
Nicolas RaskinRangersAge 25
13/2 - 24
Amadou OnanaAston VillaAge 24
29/1
- 9
Romelu LukakuNapoliAge 33
126/90 - 10
Leandro TrossardArsenalAge 31
51/12 - 11
Jérémy DokuManchester CityAge 24
43/7 - 14
Dodi LukébakioBenficaAge 28
30/6 - 17
Charles De KetelaereAtalantaAge 25
30/6 - 26
Matias Fernandez-PardoLilleAge 21
2/0
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Belgium vs Iran?
- Our Elo model estimates Belgium 43%, draw 26%, Iran 30% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Belgium vs Iran kick off?
- Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Belgium vs Iran played?
- SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.