Most likely 1–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Portugal. With Elo 220 points apart (Portugal 2026, Uzbekistan 1806), it estimates 64% / 22% / 15% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 44% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score44%
- Portugal clean sheet47%
- Uzbekistan clean sheet16%
- Portugal win-to-nil40%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Portugal0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Uzbekistan0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.85 vs 0.75). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 1244376694 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 18/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D1–1vs Congo - Kinshasa
- L1–3vs Colombia
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Diogo CostaPortoAge 26
43/0 - 12
José SáWolverhampton WanderersAge 33
5/0 - 22
Rui SilvaSporting CPAge 32
3/0
- 2
Nélson SemedoFenerbahçeAge 32
50/0 - 3
Rúben DiasManchester CityAge 29
76/3 - 4
Tomás AraújoBenficaAge 24
5/0 - 5
Diogo DalotManchester UnitedAge 27
35/3 - 13
Renato VeigaVillarrealAge 22
13/1 - 14
Gonçalo InácioSporting CPAge 24
22/2 - 20
João CanceloBarcelonaAge 32
68/12 - 24
Samú CostaMallorcaAge 25
6/0 - 25
Nuno MendesParis Saint-GermainAge 24
44/1
- 6
Matheus NunesManchester CityAge 27
20/2 - 8
Bruno FernandesManchester UnitedAge 31
89/29 - 10
Bernardo SilvaManchester CityAge 31
109/14 - 15
João NevesParis Saint-GermainAge 21
22/3 - 21
Rúben NevesAl-HilalAge 29
67/1 - 23
VitinhaParis Saint-GermainAge 26
38/0
- 7
Cristiano RonaldoCAl-NassrAge 41
228/143 - 9
Gonçalo RamosParis Saint-GermainAge 25
25/10 - 11
João FélixAl-NassrAge 26
54/12 - 16
Francisco TrincãoSporting CPAge 26
18/3 - 17
Rafael LeãoMilanAge 27
44/5 - 18
Pedro NetoChelseaAge 26
25/3 - 19
Gonçalo GuedesReal SociedadAge 29
34/8 - 26
Francisco ConceiçãoJuventusAge 23
17/4
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Portugal vs Uzbekistan?
- Our Elo model estimates Portugal 64%, draw 22%, Uzbekistan 15% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Portugal vs Uzbekistan kick off?
- Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Portugal vs Uzbekistan played?
- NRG Stadium in Houston.