The Biggest Upsets of World Cup 2026 So Far

I have watched a lot of World Cups in my time. None of them, and I mean none, have served up a group stage as chaotic as this one. The expanded 48 team format was meant to do the opposite. More places, easier draws, a gentle stroll for the big nations into the knockouts. That was the theory anyway.

Instead it has done the opposite. More minnows, more debutants, and a lot more sleepless nights for the so called favourites. Through the opening fortnight in North America, the underdogs have not just shown up. They have rewritten the script, and a few of them are still doing it.

Cape Verde Have Stolen the Show

Start with Cape Verde, because everyone else is. Picture it: an island nation of barely 525,000 people, ranked 67th in the world, turning up to their first ever World Cup and holding Spain to a goalless draw in Atlanta. Spain. The co favourites. You could have got 1500 on for them to win that match and plenty of people did. It did not land.

They did not. Then Cape Verde backed it up with a 2-2 draw against Uruguay, the very first World Cup winners, recovering from behind through a fearless late goal from Helio Varela. Their 40 year old goalkeeper Vozinha has become a cult hero. For a side nobody fancied to take a single point, two draws against that calibre of opposition is the performance of the tournament so far.

The Form Guide Has Stopped Meaning Anything

What strikes me most is how the form guide has stopped meaning anything. On Monday 16 June, all four matches ended in draws, the most in a single day of men’s World Cup football since 1958. New Zealand, the lowest ranked side in the entire field at 85th, came back twice to draw 2-2 with Iran. Qatar held Switzerland, and Bosnia pegged back Canada. None of those were supposed to happen. If you like to bet on world cup markets, this is exactly the kind of tournament where the outright and group winner prices have been turned upside down, and where doing your own homework on the lesser known sides has paid off far better than simply backing reputation.

Australia Land the Knockout Blow

Then there are the outright shocks, the ones that end in a clear result rather than a brave draw. Australia beating Turkiye 2 0 was, for my money, the most underrated upset of the lot. Turkiye were many people’s dark horse in Group D, a fashionable pick to go deep, and the Socceroos simply outworked them. Connor Metcalfe’s low strike sealed it, and Turkiye have looked rattled ever since. It is a reminder that being talented on paper counts for very little when a hungrier side turns up and refuses to give you a second on the ball.

Why the Underdogs Keep Winning

None of this is random, and I do not buy the idea that it is just luck. The gap between the elite and everyone else has been shrinking for years now. Why? Because the players turning out for the so called minnows are not strangers to this level. Half of them are in Europe’s top leagues week in, week out, lining up against the very names they are now frightening on the biggest stage. The fear has gone out of it. A Cape Verde or a New Zealand squad is full of professionals who face this standard of opponent regularly. Add the brutal North American heat, the long travel between host cities, and the pressure of a format where even a third placed team can sneak through, and the favourites are being asked to perform without any margin for complacency.

This Story Is Not Over

My honest read is that we are not done. With several groups still alive heading into the final round of fixtures, Cape Verde could yet escape Group H, and more than one fancied nation is sweating on qualification it should have wrapped up days ago. The lesson of this World Cup is the oldest one in football, dressed up in a new 48 team suit. Ranking guarantees nothing, reputation wins no matches, and the teams nobody talks about are usually the ones worth watching most closely. Keep your eye on the underdogs. They are not finished writing this story yet.