Most likely 2–0
Model read
The model reads this as a clear edge for France. With Elo 429 points apart (France 2145, Iraq 1716), it estimates 86% / 12% / 2% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 18% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score18%
- France clean sheet80%
- Iraq clean sheet9%
- France win-to-nil72%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- France0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Iraq0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.37 vs 0.23). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 1894923617 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Lopsided · 56/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- W3–1vs Senegal
- L1–4vs Norway
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Brice SambaRennesAge 32
4/0 - 16
Mike MaignanMilanAge 30
40/0 - 23
Robin RisserLensAge 21
0/0
- 2
Malo GustoChelseaAge 23
11/0 - 3
Lucas DigneAston VillaAge 32
58/0 - 4
Dayot UpamecanoBayern MunichAge 27
38/2 - 5
Jules KoundéBarcelonaAge 27
48/0 - 15
Ibrahima KonatéLiverpoolAge 27
28/0 - 17
William SalibaArsenalAge 25
32/0 - 19
Théo HernandezAl-HilalAge 28
44/2 - 21
Lucas HernandezParis Saint-GermainAge 30
42/0 - 26
Maxence LacroixCrystal PalaceAge 26
4/0
- 6
Manu KonéRomaAge 25
14/0 - 8
Aurélien TchouaméniReal MadridAge 26
46/3 - 13
N'Golo KantéFenerbahçeAge 35
69/2 - 14
Adrien RabiotMilanAge 31
59/7 - 18
Warren Zaïre-EmeryParis Saint-GermainAge 20
11/1 - 24
Rayan CherkiManchester CityAge 22
7/2 - 25
Maghnes AklioucheMonacoAge 24
9/1
- 7
Ousmane DembéléParis Saint-GermainAge 29
59/7 - 9
Marcus ThuramInter MilanAge 28
34/3 - 10
Kylian MbappéCReal MadridAge 27
98/56 - 11
Michael OliseBayern MunichAge 24
17/7 - 12
Bradley BarcolaParis Saint-GermainAge 23
20/3 - 20
Désiré DouéParis Saint-GermainAge 21
7/2 - 22
Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal PalaceAge 28
4/2
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win France vs Iraq?
- Our Elo model estimates France 86%, draw 12%, Iraq 2% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does France vs Iraq kick off?
- Monday, June 22, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is France vs Iraq played?
- Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.