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World Cup Pulse
France
vs
Upcoming
Iraq
Jun 22, 2026, 9:00 PM UTCLincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia
Model estimate
86%FranceDraw 12%Iraq2%

Most likely 2–0

Model read

The model reads this as a clear edge for France. With Elo 429 points apart (France 2145, Iraq 1716), it estimates 86% / 12% / 2% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 18% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ FranceIraq →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 21%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score18%
  • France clean sheet80%
  • Iraq clean sheet9%
  • France win-to-nil72%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • France0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Iraq0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.37 vs 0.23). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1894923617 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Lopsided · 56/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

France
  • W3–1vs Senegal
Iraq
  • L1–4vs Norway

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win France vs Iraq?
Our Elo model estimates France 86%, draw 12%, Iraq 2% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does France vs Iraq kick off?
Monday, June 22, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is France vs Iraq played?
Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.