Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 100 points apart (Norway 1993, Senegal 1893), it estimates 49% / 25% / 26% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 51% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score51%
- Norway clean sheet35%
- Senegal clean sheet21%
- Norway win-to-nil28%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Norway0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Senegal0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.55 vs 1.05). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 381336272 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 5/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- W4–1@ Iraq
- L1–3@ France
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Ørjan NylandSevillaAge 35
71/0 - 12
Sander TangvikHamburger SVAge 23
0/0 - 13
Egil SelvikWatfordAge 28
7/0
- 3
Kristoffer AjerBrentfordAge 28
52/2 - 4
Leo ØstigårdGenoaAge 26
38/1 - 5
David Møller WolfeWolverhampton WanderersAge 24
22/1 - 15
Fredrik André BjørkanBodø/GlimtAge 27
21/1 - 16
Marcus Holmgren PedersenTorinoAge 25
32/0 - 17
Torbjørn HeggemBolognaAge 27
15/0 - 24
Sondre LangåsDerby CountyAge 25
3/0 - 25
Henrik FalchenerVikingAge 23
1/0
- 2
Morten ThorsbyCremoneseAge 30
31/0 - 6
Patrick BergBodø/GlimtAge 28
43/0 - 8
Sander BergeFulhamAge 28
66/1 - 10
Martin ØdegaardCArsenalAge 27
68/5 - 14
Fredrik AursnesBenficaAge 30
22/1 - 18
Kristian ThorstvedtSassuoloAge 27
37/4 - 19
Thelo AasgaardRangersAge 24
8/5 - 21
Andreas SchjelderupBenficaAge 22
12/1 - 22
Oscar BobbFulhamAge 22
20/2 - 23
Jens Petter HaugeBodø/GlimtAge 26
15/1
- 7
Alexander SørlothAtlético MadridAge 30
72/26 - 9
Erling HaalandManchester CityAge 25
50/55 - 11
Jørgen Strand LarsenCrystal PalaceAge 26
28/6 - 20
Antonio NusaRB LeipzigAge 21
24/8 - 26
Julian RyersonBorussia DortmundAge 28
43/1
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Norway vs Senegal?
- Our Elo model estimates Norway 49%, draw 25%, Senegal 26% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Norway vs Senegal kick off?
- Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Norway vs Senegal played?
- MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.