Most likely 1–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Senegal. With Elo 177 points apart (Senegal 1893, Iraq 1716), it estimates 58% / 23% / 18% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 47% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score47%
- Senegal clean sheet42%
- Iraq clean sheet18%
- Senegal win-to-nil35%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Senegal0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Iraq0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.74 vs 0.86). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 3565466293 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 12/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- L1–3@ France
- L1–4vs Norway
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Yehvann DioufNiceAge 26
2/0 - 16
Édouard MendyAl-AhliAge 34
57/0 - 23
Mory DiawLe HavreAge 32
5/0
- 2
Mamadou SarrChelseaAge 20
8/0 - 3
Kalidou KoulibalyCAl-HilalAge 35
103/2 - 4
Abdoulaye SeckMaccabi HaifaAge 34
22/4 - 14
Ismail JakobsGalatasarayAge 26
30/0 - 15
Krépin DiattaMonacoAge 27
61/2 - 19
Moussa NiakhatéLyonAge 30
31/0 - 24
Antoine MendyNiceAge 22
7/0 - 25
El Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham UnitedAge 21
20/1
- 5
Idrissa GueyeEvertonAge 36
131/7 - 6
Pathé CissRayo VallecanoAge 32
30/0 - 8
Lamine CamaraMonacoAge 22
33/7 - 17
Pape Matar SarrTottenham HotspurAge 23
40/4 - 21
Habib DiarraSunderlandAge 22
21/4 - 22
Bara Sapoko NdiayeBayern MunichAge 18
1/0 - 26
Pape GueyeVillarrealAge 27
41/5
- 7
Assane DiaoComoAge 20
5/0 - 9
Bamba DiengLorientAge 26
23/2 - 10
Sadio ManéAl-NassrAge 34
128/55 - 11
Nicolas JacksonBayern MunichAge 25
33/8 - 12
Cherif NdiayeSamsunsporAge 30
19/4 - 13
Iliman NdiayeEvertonAge 26
40/4 - 18
Ismaïla SarrCrystal PalaceAge 28
83/19 - 20
Ibrahim MbayeParis Saint-GermainAge 18
11/3
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Senegal vs Iraq?
- Our Elo model estimates Senegal 58%, draw 23%, Iraq 18% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Senegal vs Iraq kick off?
- Friday, June 26, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Senegal vs Iraq played?
- BMO Field in Toronto.