Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 31 points apart (Cape Verde 1682, Saudi Arabia 1713), it estimates 33% / 26% / 40% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score53%
- Cape Verde clean sheet25%
- Saudi Arabia clean sheet29%
- Saudi Arabia win-to-nil22%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Cape Verde0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Saudi Arabia0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.22 vs 1.38). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 1783445732 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 1/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D0–0@ Spain
- D1–1vs Uruguay
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
VozinhaChavesAge 40
90/0 - 12
Márcio RosaMontanaAge 29
11/0 - 23
CJ dos SantosSan Diego FCAge 25
1/0
- 2
StopiraTorreenseAge 38
61/4 - 3
DineyAl BataehAge 31
32/2 - 4
Roberto LopesShamrock RoversAge 34
45/0 - 5
Logan CostaVillarrealAge 25
28/0 - 13
Sidny Lopes CabralBenficaAge 23
11/3 - 22
Steven MoreiraColumbus CrewAge 31
20/0 - 24
Wagner PinaTrabzonsporAge 23
14/0 - 25
Kelvin PiresSJKAge 26
6/1
- 6
Kevin PinaKrasnodarAge 29
31/3 - 7
Jovane CabralEstrela AmadoraAge 28
29/3 - 8
João PauloFCSBAge 28
41/1 - 10
Jamiro MonteiroPEC ZwolleAge 32
55/5 - 11
Garry RodriguesApollon LimassolAge 35
61/10 - 14
Deroy DuarteLudogorets RazgradAge 26
33/0 - 15
Laros DuartePuskás AkadémiaAge 29
20/1 - 16
Yannick SemedoFarenseAge 30
11/1 - 17
Willy SemedoOmoniaAge 32
38/3 - 18
Telmo ArcanjoVitória de GuimarãesAge 24
16/1 - 21
Nuno da Costaİstanbul BaşakşehirAge 35
9/2 - 26
Hélio VarelaMaccabi Tel AvivAge 24
21/0
- 9
Gilson BenchimolAkron TolyattiAge 24
21/6 - 19
Dailon LivramentoCasa PiaAge 25
22/7 - 20
Ryan MendesCIğdırAge 36
98/22
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia?
- Our Elo model estimates Cape Verde 33%, draw 26%, Saudi Arabia 40% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia kick off?
- Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia played?
- NRG Stadium in Houston.