Most likely 0–1
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Spain. With Elo 235 points apart (Uruguay 1956, Spain 2191), it estimates 13% / 21% / 65% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 43% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score43%
- Uruguay clean sheet15%
- Spain clean sheet49%
- Spain win-to-nil42%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Uruguay0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Spain0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.71 vs 1.89). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 137733675 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 20/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D1–1@ Saudi Arabia
- D0–0vs Cape Verde
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Sergio RochetInternacionalAge 33
35/0 - 12
Santiago MeleMonterreyAge 28
8/0 - 23
Fernando MusleraEstudiantesAge 40
134/0
- 2
José María GiménezCAtlético MadridAge 31
99/8 - 3
Sebastián CáceresAméricaAge 26
24/0 - 4
Ronald AraújoBarcelonaAge 27
27/1 - 13
Guillermo VarelaFlamengoAge 33
28/0 - 16
Mathías OliveraNapoliAge 28
35/2 - 17
Matías ViñaRiver PlateAge 28
43/1 - 24
Santiago BuenoWolverhampton WanderersAge 27
8/0
- 5
Manuel UgarteManchester UnitedAge 25
36/1 - 6
Rodrigo BentancurTottenham HotspurAge 28
74/3 - 7
Nicolás de la CruzFlamengoAge 29
34/5 - 8
Federico ValverdeReal MadridAge 27
73/9 - 10
Giorgian de ArrascaetaFlamengoAge 32
60/13 - 14
Agustín CanobbioFluminenseAge 27
15/1 - 15
Emiliano MartínezPalmeirasAge 26
10/0 - 20
Maximiliano AraújoSporting CPAge 26
28/3 - 22
Joaquín PiquerezPalmeirasAge 27
19/0 - 25
Juan Manuel SanabriaReal Salt LakeAge 26
5/1 - 26
Rodrigo ZalazarBragaAge 26
8/2
- 9
Darwin NúñezAl-HilalAge 26
38/13 - 11
Facundo PellistriPanathinaikosAge 24
39/2 - 18
Brian RodríguezAméricaAge 26
32/4 - 19
Rodrigo AguirreUANLAge 31
10/3 - 21
Federico ViñasOviedoAge 27
11/2
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?
- Our Elo model estimates Uruguay 13%, draw 21%, Spain 65% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Uruguay vs Spain kick off?
- Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Uruguay vs Spain played?
- Estadio Akron in Zapopan.