Skip to content
World Cup Pulse
Belgium
1–1
FT
Egypt
Jun 15, 2026, 7:00 PM UTCLumen Field · Seattle
Model estimateModel missed it
52%BelgiumDraw 25%Egypt23%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 122 points apart (Belgium 1945, Egypt 1823), it estimates 52% / 25% / 23% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ BelgiumEgypt →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Belgium clean sheet37%
  • Egypt clean sheet20%
  • Belgium win-to-nil30%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Belgium0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Egypt0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.60 vs 1.00). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 585330117 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 6/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Belgium
  • D1–1vs Egypt
Egypt
  • D1–1@ Belgium

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Belgium · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D1–1Egypt

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Belgium vs Egypt?
Our Elo model estimates Belgium 52%, draw 25%, Egypt 23% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Belgium vs Egypt kick off?
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Belgium vs Egypt played?
Lumen Field in Seattle.