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World Cup Pulse
Portugal
1–1
FT
Congo - Kinshasa
Jun 17, 2026, 5:00 PM UTCNRG Stadium · Houston
Model estimateModel missed it
66%PortugalDraw 21%Congo - Kinshasa13%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Portugal. With Elo 242 points apart (Portugal 2026, Congo - Kinshasa 1784), it estimates 66% / 21% / 13% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 43% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ PortugalCongo - Kinshasa →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 14%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score43%
  • Portugal clean sheet50%
  • Congo - Kinshasa clean sheet15%
  • Portugal win-to-nil42%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Portugal0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Congo - Kinshasa0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.91 vs 0.70). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2137469422 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 21/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Portugal
  • D1–1vs Congo - Kinshasa
Congo - Kinshasa
  • D1–1@ Portugal

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Portugal · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D1–1Congo - Kinshasa

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Portugal vs Congo - Kinshasa?
Our Elo model estimates Portugal 66%, draw 21%, Congo - Kinshasa 13% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Portugal vs Congo - Kinshasa kick off?
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Portugal vs Congo - Kinshasa played?
NRG Stadium in Houston.