Most likely 2–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Argentina. With Elo 286 points apart (Argentina 2206, Austria 1920), it estimates 71% / 19% / 10% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 38% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score38%
- Argentina clean sheet56%
- Austria clean sheet13%
- Argentina win-to-nil48%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Argentina0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Austria0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.02 vs 0.59). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 3540629298 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 29/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- W3–0vs Algeria
- W3–1vs Jordan
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Juan MussoAtlético MadridAge 32
4/0 - 12
Gerónimo RulliMarseilleAge 34
8/0 - 23
Emiliano MartínezAston VillaAge 33
59/0
- 2
Marcos SenesiBournemouthAge 29
3/0 - 3
Nicolás TagliaficoLyonAge 33
76/1 - 4
Gonzalo MontielRiver PlateAge 29
39/2 - 6
Lisandro MartínezManchester UnitedAge 28
28/1 - 13
Cristian RomeroTottenham HotspurAge 28
51/3 - 19
Nicolás OtamendiBenficaAge 38
132/8 - 25
Facundo MedinaMarseilleAge 27
9/0 - 26
Nahuel MolinaAtlético MadridAge 28
58/1
- 5
Leandro ParedesBoca JuniorsAge 31
77/5 - 7
Rodrigo De PaulInter Miami CFAge 32
87/2 - 8
Valentín BarcoStrasbourgAge 21
4/2 - 11
Giovani Lo CelsoReal BetisAge 30
67/4 - 14
Exequiel PalaciosBayer LeverkusenAge 27
40/0 - 15
Nicolás GonzálezAtlético MadridAge 28
51/6 - 20
Alexis Mac AllisterLiverpoolAge 27
46/6 - 24
Enzo FernándezChelseaAge 25
42/6
- 9
Julián AlvarezAtlético MadridAge 26
51/14 - 10
Lionel MessiCInter Miami CFAge 38
199/117 - 16
Thiago AlmadaAtlético MadridAge 25
16/5 - 17
Giuliano SimeoneAtlético MadridAge 23
13/2 - 18
Nico PazComoAge 21
9/1 - 21
José Manuel LópezPalmeirasAge 25
5/0 - 22
Lautaro MartínezInter MilanAge 28
77/37
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Argentina vs Austria?
- Our Elo model estimates Argentina 71%, draw 19%, Austria 10% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Argentina vs Austria kick off?
- Monday, June 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Argentina vs Austria played?
- AT&T Stadium in Arlington.