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World Cup Pulse
Panama
vs
Upcoming
Croatia
Jun 23, 2026, 11:00 PM UTCBMO Field · Toronto
Model estimate
23%PanamaDraw 25%Croatia53%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 131 points apart (Panama 1808, Croatia 1939), it estimates 23% / 25% / 53% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ PanamaCroatia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Panama clean sheet20%
  • Croatia clean sheet38%
  • Croatia win-to-nil30%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Panama0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Croatia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.97 vs 1.63). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2311363860 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 7/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Panama
  • L0–1@ Ghana
Croatia
  • L2–4@ England

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Panama vs Croatia?
Our Elo model estimates Panama 23%, draw 25%, Croatia 53% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Panama vs Croatia kick off?
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Panama vs Croatia played?
BMO Field in Toronto.