Most likely 1–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Croatia. With Elo 266 points apart (Croatia 1939, Ghana 1673), it estimates 69% / 20% / 11% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 40% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score40%
- Croatia clean sheet53%
- Ghana clean sheet14%
- Croatia win-to-nil46%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Croatia0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Ghana0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.97 vs 0.64). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 2203556207 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 25/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- L2–4@ England
- W1–0vs Panama
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Dominik LivakovićDinamo ZagrebAge 31
75/0 - 12
Ivor PandurHull CityAge 26
0/0 - 23
Dominik KotarskiCopenhagenAge 26
4/0
- 2
Josip StanišićBayern MunichAge 26
31/0 - 3
Marin PongračićFiorentinaAge 28
20/0 - 4
Joško GvardiolManchester CityAge 24
48/4 - 5
Duje Ćaleta-CarReal SociedadAge 29
38/1 - 6
Josip ŠutaloAjaxAge 26
33/0 - 18
Kristijan JakićFC AugsburgAge 29
17/2 - 22
Luka VuškovićHamburger SVAge 19
5/1 - 25
Martin ErlićMidtjyllandAge 28
13/1
- 7
Nikola MoroBolognaAge 28
10/0 - 8
Mateo KovačićManchester CityAge 32
113/5 - 10
Luka ModrićCMilanAge 40
198/29 - 13
Nikola VlašićTorinoAge 28
63/10 - 15
Mario PašalićAtalantaAge 31
85/12 - 16
Martin BaturinaComoAge 23
19/1 - 17
Petar SučićInter MilanAge 22
17/1 - 19
Toni FrukRijekaAge 25
7/1 - 21
Luka SučićReal SociedadAge 23
21/1
- 9
Andrej KramarićTSG HoffenheimAge 35
116/36 - 11
Ante BudimirOsasunaAge 34
38/6 - 14
Ivan PerišićPSV EindhovenAge 37
154/38 - 20
Igor MatanovićSC FreiburgAge 23
9/2 - 24
Marco PašalićOrlando City SCAge 25
15/1 - 26
Petar MusaFC DallasAge 28
11/1
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Croatia vs Ghana?
- Our Elo model estimates Croatia 69%, draw 20%, Ghana 11% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Croatia vs Ghana kick off?
- Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Croatia vs Ghana played?
- Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.