Most likely 0–1
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Côte d’Ivoire. With Elo 266 points apart (Curaçao 1595, Côte d’Ivoire 1861), it estimates 11% / 20% / 69% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 40% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score40%
- Curaçao clean sheet14%
- Côte d’Ivoire clean sheet53%
- Côte d’Ivoire win-to-nil46%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Curaçao0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Côte d’Ivoire0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.64 vs 1.97). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 2013327212 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 25/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- L1–7@ Germany
- W1–0vs Ecuador
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Eloy RoomMiami FCAge 37
71/0 - 25
Tyrick BodakTelstarAge 24
4/0 - 26
Trevor DoornbuschVVV-VenloAge 26
8/0
- 2
Shurandy SamboSparta RotterdamAge 24
8/0 - 3
Juriën GaariAbhaAge 32
60/1 - 4
Roshon van EijmaRKC WaalwijkAge 28
28/1 - 5
Sherel FloranusPEC ZwolleAge 27
28/0 - 18
Armando ObispoPSV EindhovenAge 27
6/0 - 20
Joshua BrenetKayserisporAge 32
18/2 - 23
Riechedly BazoerKonyasporAge 29
5/0 - 24
Deveron FonvilleNECAge 23
2/0
- 6
Godfried RoemeratoeRKC WaalwijkAge 26
28/1 - 7
Juninho BacunaVolendamAge 28
49/15 - 8
Livano ComenenciaZürichAge 22
20/2 - 10
Leandro BacunaCIğdırAge 34
72/16 - 15
Ar'jany MarthaRotherham UnitedAge 22
9/2 - 21
Tahith ChongSheffield UnitedAge 26
6/3 - 22
Kevin FelidaDen BoschAge 26
19/1
- 9
Jürgen LocadiaMiami FCAge 32
13/1 - 11
Jeremy AntonisseKifisiaAge 24
27/4 - 12
Sontje HansenMiddlesbroughAge 24
6/1 - 13
Tyrese NoslinTelstarAge 23
7/1 - 14
Kenji GorréMaccabi HaifaAge 31
38/6 - 16
Jearl MargarithaBeverenAge 26
22/5 - 17
Brandley KuwasVolendamAge 33
35/2 - 19
Gervane KastaneerTerengganuAge 30
29/9
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Curaçao vs Côte d’Ivoire?
- Our Elo model estimates Curaçao 11%, draw 20%, Côte d’Ivoire 69% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Curaçao vs Côte d’Ivoire kick off?
- Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Curaçao vs Côte d’Ivoire played?
- Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.