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World Cup Pulse
Paraguay
vs
Upcoming
Australia
Jun 26, 2026, 2:00 AM UTCLevi's Stadium · Santa Clara
Model estimate
27%ParaguayDraw 26%Australia47%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 88 points apart (Paraguay 1868, Australia 1956), it estimates 27% / 26% / 47% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ ParaguayAustralia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score52%
  • Paraguay clean sheet22%
  • Australia clean sheet34%
  • Australia win-to-nil27%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Paraguay0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Australia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.08 vs 1.52). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2431340311 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 4/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Paraguay
  • W1–0@ Türkiye
  • L1–4@ United States
Australia
  • L0–2@ United States
  • W2–0vs Türkiye

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Paraguay vs Australia?
Our Elo model estimates Paraguay 27%, draw 26%, Australia 47% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Paraguay vs Australia kick off?
Friday, June 26, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Paraguay vs Australia played?
Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara.