Как работает сложная математическая модель, позволяющая командам, занявшим третье место, пройти дальше.

The expanded 48-team format for the 2026 World Cup has brought back a rule that stirs nostalgia among fans who followed the tournaments between 1986 and 1994: qualification for the best third-placed teams.

However, with 12 groups in the current competition, the math for the knockout stage has become a true logistical puzzle with 495 possible combinations.

How does the new format work?

With the introduction of an extra knockout round – the Round of 32 – the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams overall advance to the knockout stage.

The big tension is that the bracket will only be fully revealed after the final whistle of the last group-stage match.

The opponent of a group winner (such as Germany, the USA and Mexico, who have already secured top spot) changes completely depending on which groups produce the eight qualifiers.

To determine who advances among the third-placed teams, FIFA uses the following tiebreakers, in this order:

Points

Goal difference

Goals scored

Fair play (fewest yellow and red cards)

FIFA ranking

'Cutoff Mark'

According to projections and simulations from the Opta Analyst website, the safety margin for dreaming of a spot is around three points. Check out the probabilities based on performance:

4 points: Qualification virtually certain (99.81% chance).

3 points with a positive goal difference: Very comfortable situation (+97% chance).

3 points with a zero goal difference: Good prospects (94.8% chance).

3 points with a negative goal difference (-1): Moderate risk (84.2% chance).

2 points: Near-elimination scenario (only a 4.66% chance).

Brazil’s Scenario and the Bracket Picture

This Wednesday (24), the outcome of the first three groups (A, B and C) will begin to shape the fate of several teams.

Teams such as Czechia, South Africa and Scotland are fighting directly for those playoff spots.

In Group C, Brazil and Morocco lead with four points and are favorites to advance at the top.

Brazil will face Scotland (3 points, zero goal difference).

The Scots will take the field focused on avoiding any damage to their goal difference, knowing that a draw or a narrow defeat could be enough to send them into the next round.

Historical Curiosity

In the three times the format allowed third-placed teams to advance (1986, 1990 and 1994), Brazil faced repechage teams right in the Round of 16.

Brazil eliminated Poland ('86) and the USA ('94), but suffered a historic elimination against Diego Maradona and Claudio Caniggia’s Argentina at the 1990 World Cup.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.