Skip to content
World Cup Pulse
Netherlands
2–2
FT
Japan
Jun 14, 2026, 8:00 PM UTCAT&T Stadium · Arlington
Model estimateModel missed it
38%NetherlandsDraw 26%Japan35%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 14 points apart (Netherlands 2009, Japan 1995), it estimates 38% / 26% / 35% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ NetherlandsJapan →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score53%
  • Netherlands clean sheet28%
  • Japan clean sheet26%
  • Netherlands win-to-nil21%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Netherlands0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Japan0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.33 vs 1.27). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2881555073 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 1/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Netherlands
  • D2–2vs Japan
Japan
  • D2–2@ Netherlands

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Netherlands · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D2–2Japan

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Netherlands vs Japan?
Our Elo model estimates Netherlands 38%, draw 26%, Japan 35% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Netherlands vs Japan kick off?
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Netherlands vs Japan played?
AT&T Stadium in Arlington.