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World Cup Pulse
Sweden
5–1
FT
Tunisia
Jun 15, 2026, 2:00 AM UTCEstadio BBVA · Guadalupe
Model estimateModel called it
53%SwedenDraw 25%Tunisia22%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 134 points apart (Sweden 1821, Tunisia 1687), it estimates 53% / 25% / 22% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ SwedenTunisia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Sweden clean sheet38%
  • Tunisia clean sheet19%
  • Sweden win-to-nil31%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Sweden0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Tunisia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.64 vs 0.97). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 4017258023 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 8/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Sweden
  • L1–5@ Netherlands
  • W5–1vs Tunisia
Tunisia
  • L0–4vs Japan
  • L1–5@ Sweden

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Sweden · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W5–1Tunisia

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia?
Our Elo model estimates Sweden 53%, draw 25%, Tunisia 22% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Sweden vs Tunisia kick off?
Monday, June 15, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Sweden vs Tunisia played?
Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.