Most likely 1–0
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 134 points apart (Sweden 1821, Tunisia 1687), it estimates 53% / 25% / 22% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 50% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score50%
- Sweden clean sheet38%
- Tunisia clean sheet19%
- Sweden win-to-nil31%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Sweden0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Tunisia0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.64 vs 0.97). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 4017258023 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 8/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- L1–5@ Netherlands
- W5–1vs Tunisia
- L0–4vs Japan
- L1–5@ Sweden
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
Sweden · 1W · 0D · 0L
- W5–1Tunisia
Squad · 26 players
Who featured
Yasin Ayari
Alexander Isak
Viktor Gyökeres
Elliot Stroud
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Lucas Bergvall
Benjamin Nygren
Mattias Svanberg
Jesper Karlström
Anthony Elanga
Daniel Svensson
Alexander Bernhardsson
From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.
- 1
Jacob Widell ZetterströmDerby CountyAge 27
3/0 - 12
Viktor JohanssonStoke CityAge 27
12/0 - 23
Kristoffer NordfeldtAIKAge 36
21/0
- 2
Gustaf LagerbielkeBragaAge 26
11/2 - 3
Victor LindelöfCAston VillaAge 31
76/3 - 4
Isak HienAtalantaAge 27
29/0 - 5
Gabriel GudmundssonLeeds UnitedAge 27
24/0 - 6
Herman JohanssonFC DallasAge 28
3/0 - 8
Daniel SvenssonBorussia DortmundAge 24
13/0 - 14
Hjalmar EkdalBurnleyAge 27
13/0 - 15
Carl StarfeltCelta VigoAge 31
18/0 - 20
Eric SmithFC St. PauliAge 29
2/0 - 21
Alexander BernhardssonHolstein KielAge 27
11/0 - 24
Elliot StroudMjällby AIFAge 24
1/0
- 7
Lucas BergvallTottenham HotspurAge 20
10/0 - 10
Benjamin NygrenCelticAge 24
11/3 - 13
Ken SemaPafosAge 32
33/5 - 16
Jesper KarlströmUdineseAge 31
25/0 - 18
Yasin AyariBrighton & Hove AlbionAge 22
21/3 - 19
Mattias SvanbergVfL WolfsburgAge 27
41/2 - 22
Besfort ZeneliUnion Saint-GilloiseAge 23
8/0
- 9
Alexander IsakLiverpoolAge 26
58/17 - 11
Anthony ElangaNewcastle UnitedAge 24
30/6 - 17
Viktor GyökeresArsenalAge 28
33/20 - 25
Gustaf NilssonClub BruggeAge 29
10/4 - 26
Taha AliMalmö FFAge 27
2/0
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia?
- Our Elo model estimates Sweden 53%, draw 25%, Tunisia 22% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Sweden vs Tunisia kick off?
- Monday, June 15, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Sweden vs Tunisia played?
- Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.