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World Cup Pulse
Iran
2–2
FT
New Zealand
Jun 16, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCSoFi Stadium · Inglewood
Model estimateModel missed it
54%IranDraw 24%New Zealand21%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 143 points apart (Iran 1889, New Zealand 1746), it estimates 54% / 24% / 21% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 49% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ IranNew Zealand →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score49%
  • Iran clean sheet39%
  • New Zealand clean sheet19%
  • Iran win-to-nil32%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Iran0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • New Zealand0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.66 vs 0.94). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1721520507 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 8/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Iran
  • D2–2vs New Zealand
New Zealand
  • D2–2@ Iran

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Iran · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D2–2New Zealand

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Iran vs New Zealand?
Our Elo model estimates Iran 54%, draw 24%, New Zealand 21% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Iran vs New Zealand kick off?
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Iran vs New Zealand played?
SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.