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World Cup Pulse
Uzbekistan
1–3
FT
Colombia
Jun 18, 2026, 2:00 AM UTCEstadio Azteca · Mexico City
Model estimateModel called it
10%UzbekistanDraw 20%Colombia70%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Colombia. With Elo 276 points apart (Uzbekistan 1806, Colombia 2082), it estimates 10% / 20% / 70% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 39% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ UzbekistanColombia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 15%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score39%
  • Uzbekistan clean sheet14%
  • Colombia clean sheet54%
  • Colombia win-to-nil47%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Uzbekistan0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Colombia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.61 vs 1.99). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1356374771 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 27/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Uzbekistan
  • L1–3vs Colombia
Colombia
  • W3–1@ Uzbekistan

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Uzbekistan · 0W · 0D · 1L

  • L1–3Colombia

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Uzbekistan vs Colombia?
Our Elo model estimates Uzbekistan 10%, draw 20%, Colombia 70% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Uzbekistan vs Colombia kick off?
Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Uzbekistan vs Colombia played?
Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.