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World Cup Pulse
Canada
6–0
FT
Qatar
Jun 18, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCBC Place · Vancouver
Model estimateModel called it
80%CanadaDraw 15%Qatar5%

Most likely 2–0· +80 Elo host advantage applied (Canada at home)

Model read

The model reads this as a clear edge for Canada. With Elo 286 points apart (Canada 1877, Qatar 1591), it estimates 80% / 15% / 5% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 28% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ CanadaQatar →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 18%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score28%
  • Canada clean sheet68%
  • Qatar clean sheet11%
  • Canada win-to-nil61%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Canada0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Qatar0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.21 vs 0.39). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 707928000 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Lopsided · 44/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Canada
  • W6–0vs Qatar
  • D1–1vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar
  • L0–6@ Canada
  • D1–1vs Switzerland

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Canada · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W6–0Qatar

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Canada vs Qatar?
Our Elo model estimates Canada 80%, draw 15%, Qatar 5% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Canada vs Qatar kick off?
Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Canada vs Qatar played?
BC Place in Vancouver.