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World Cup Pulse
Canada
1–1
FT
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Jun 12, 2026, 7:00 PM UTCBMO Field · Toronto
Model estimateModel missed it
71%CanadaDraw 19%Bosnia and Herzegovina10%

Most likely 2–0· +80 Elo host advantage applied (Canada at home)

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Canada. With Elo 203 points apart (Canada 1877, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1674), it estimates 71% / 19% / 10% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 39% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 15%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score39%
  • Canada clean sheet55%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina clean sheet13%
  • Canada win-to-nil48%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Canada0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.01 vs 0.59). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1598924664 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 28/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Canada
  • W6–0vs Qatar
  • D1–1vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • L1–4@ Switzerland
  • D1–1@ Canada

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Canada · 0W · 1D · 0L

  • D1–1Bosnia and Herzegovina

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Our Elo model estimates Canada 71%, draw 19%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 10% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina kick off?
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina played?
BMO Field in Toronto.