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World Cup Pulse
New Zealand
vs
Upcoming
Egypt
Jun 22, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCBC Place · Vancouver
Model estimate
28%New ZealandDraw 26%Egypt46%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 77 points apart (New Zealand 1746, Egypt 1823), it estimates 28% / 26% / 46% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ New ZealandEgypt →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score52%
  • New Zealand clean sheet22%
  • Egypt clean sheet33%
  • Egypt win-to-nil26%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • New Zealand0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Egypt0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.11 vs 1.49). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1027656131 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 3/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

New Zealand
  • D2–2@ Iran
Egypt
  • D1–1@ Belgium

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win New Zealand vs Egypt?
Our Elo model estimates New Zealand 28%, draw 26%, Egypt 46% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does New Zealand vs Egypt kick off?
Monday, June 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is New Zealand vs Egypt played?
BC Place in Vancouver.