Most likely 2–0
Model read
The model reads this as a lean toward Colombia. With Elo 298 points apart (Colombia 2082, Congo - Kinshasa 1784), it estimates 73% / 19% / 9% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 37% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score37%
- Colombia clean sheet57%
- Congo - Kinshasa clean sheet13%
- Colombia win-to-nil50%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Colombia0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Congo - Kinshasa0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.04 vs 0.56). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 797776731 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Leaning · 31/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- W3–1@ Uzbekistan
- D1–1@ Portugal
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
David OspinaAtlético NacionalAge 37
130/0 - 12
Camilo VargasAtlasAge 37
42/0 - 24
Álvaro MonteroVélez SarsfieldAge 31
12/0
- 2
Daniel MuñozCrystal PalaceAge 30
46/3 - 3
Jhon LucumíBolognaAge 27
37/1 - 4
Santiago AriasIndependienteAge 34
68/0 - 13
Yerry MinaCagliariAge 31
54/8 - 14
Gustavo PuertaRacing SantanderAge 22
6/1 - 17
Johan MojicaMallorcaAge 33
45/1 - 18
Willer DittaCruz AzulAge 28
5/0 - 22
Deiver MachadoNantesAge 32
15/0 - 23
Davinson SánchezGalatasarayAge 30
79/4
- 5
Kevin CastañoRiver PlateAge 25
25/0 - 6
Richard RíosBenficaAge 26
32/2 - 8
Jorge CarrascalFlamengoAge 28
24/2 - 10
James RodríguezCMinnesota United FCAge 34
126/31 - 11
Jhon AriasPalmeirasAge 28
38/6 - 15
Juan PortillaAthletico ParanaenseAge 27
10/0 - 16
Jefferson LermaCrystal PalaceAge 31
65/5 - 20
Juan Fernando QuinteroRiver PlateAge 33
49/6
- 7
Luis DíazBayern MunichAge 29
74/22 - 9
Jhon CórdobaKrasnodarAge 33
21/6 - 19
Cucho HernándezReal BetisAge 27
9/2 - 21
Jaminton CampazRosario CentralAge 26
10/1 - 25
Luis SuárezSporting CPAge 28
12/5 - 26
Andrés GómezVasco da GamaAge 23
8/2
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Colombia vs Congo - Kinshasa?
- Our Elo model estimates Colombia 73%, draw 19%, Congo - Kinshasa 9% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Colombia vs Congo - Kinshasa kick off?
- Wednesday, June 24, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Colombia vs Congo - Kinshasa played?
- Estadio Akron in Zapopan.