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World Cup Pulse
Bosnia and Herzegovina
vs
Upcoming
Qatar
Jun 24, 2026, 7:00 PM UTCLumen Field · Seattle
Model estimate
47%Bosnia and HerzegovinaDraw 26%Qatar27%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 83 points apart (Bosnia and Herzegovina 1674, Qatar 1591), it estimates 47% / 26% / 27% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ Bosnia and HerzegovinaQatar →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score52%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina clean sheet34%
  • Qatar clean sheet22%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win-to-nil26%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Qatar0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.51 vs 1.09). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1665011449 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 4/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • L1–4@ Switzerland
  • D1–1@ Canada
Qatar
  • L0–6@ Canada
  • D1–1vs Switzerland

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar?
Our Elo model estimates Bosnia and Herzegovina 47%, draw 26%, Qatar 27% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar kick off?
Wednesday, June 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar played?
Lumen Field in Seattle.