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World Cup Pulse
Japan
vs
Upcoming
Sweden
Jun 25, 2026, 11:00 PM UTCAT&T Stadium · Arlington
Model estimate
58%JapanDraw 24%Sweden19%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 174 points apart (Japan 1995, Sweden 1821), it estimates 58% / 24% / 19% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 48% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ JapanSweden →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score48%
  • Japan clean sheet42%
  • Sweden clean sheet18%
  • Japan win-to-nil35%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Japan0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Sweden0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.74 vs 0.86). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3216101890 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 12/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Japan
  • D2–2@ Netherlands
Sweden
  • W5–1vs Tunisia

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Japan vs Sweden?
Our Elo model estimates Japan 58%, draw 24%, Sweden 19% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Japan vs Sweden kick off?
Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Japan vs Sweden played?
AT&T Stadium in Arlington.