Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 66 points apart (Egypt 1823, Iran 1889), it estimates 29% / 26% / 45% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score52%
- Egypt clean sheet23%
- Iran clean sheet32%
- Iran win-to-nil25%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Egypt0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Iran0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.14 vs 1.47). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 2852007834 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 3/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D1–1@ Belgium
- D2–2vs New Zealand
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Mohamed El ShenawyAl AhlyAge 37
76/0 - 16
El Mahdy SolimanZamalekAge 39
0/0 - 23
Mostafa ShobeirAl AhlyAge 26
9/0 - 26
Mohamed AlaaEl GounaAge 27
0/0
- 2
Yasser IbrahimAl AhlyAge 33
17/1 - 3
Mohamed HanyAl AhlyAge 30
42/0 - 4
Hossam AbdelmaguidZamalekAge 25
13/0 - 5
Ramy RabiaAl AinAge 33
44/5 - 6
Mohamed AbdelmonemNiceAge 27
36/3 - 13
Ahmed FatouhZamalekAge 28
39/1 - 15
Karim HafezPyramidsAge 30
9/0 - 24
Tarek AlaaZEDAge 24
3/0
- 8
Emam AshourAl AhlyAge 28
29/0 - 11
Mostafa ZikoPyramidsAge 29
2/2 - 14
Hamdy FathyAl-WakrahAge 31
63/3 - 17
Mohanad LasheenPyramidsAge 30
23/0 - 18
Nabil EmadAl-NajmaAge 30
12/0 - 19
Marwan AttiaAl AhlyAge 27
34/1 - 21
Mahmoud SaberZEDAge 24
15/1
- 7
TrézéguetAl AhlyAge 31
96/23 - 9
Hamza AbdelkarimBarcelona BAge 18
2/0 - 10
Mohamed SalahCLiverpoolAge 34
116/67 - 12
Haissem HassanOviedoAge 24
4/0 - 20
Ibrahim AdelNordsjællandAge 25
24/3 - 22
Omar MarmoushManchester CityAge 27
50/11 - 25
ZizoAl AhlyAge 30
63/5
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Egypt vs Iran?
- Our Elo model estimates Egypt 29%, draw 26%, Iran 45% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Egypt vs Iran kick off?
- Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 3:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Egypt vs Iran played?
- Lumen Field in Seattle.