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World Cup Pulse
New Zealand
vs
Upcoming
Belgium
Jun 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTCBC Place · Vancouver
Model estimate
16%New ZealandDraw 23%Belgium61%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Belgium. With Elo 199 points apart (New Zealand 1746, Belgium 1945), it estimates 16% / 23% / 61% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 46% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ New ZealandBelgium →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score46%
  • New Zealand clean sheet17%
  • Belgium clean sheet45%
  • Belgium win-to-nil37%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • New Zealand0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Belgium0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.80 vs 1.80). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1336317385 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 15/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

New Zealand
  • D2–2@ Iran
Belgium
  • D1–1vs Egypt

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win New Zealand vs Belgium?
Our Elo model estimates New Zealand 16%, draw 23%, Belgium 61% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does New Zealand vs Belgium kick off?
Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 3:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is New Zealand vs Belgium played?
BC Place in Vancouver.