Most likely 1–1
Model read
The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 22 points apart (Congo - Kinshasa 1784, Uzbekistan 1806), it estimates 34% / 26% / 39% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.
A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.
Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson
Derived from the same grid
- Both teams to score53%
- Congo - Kinshasa clean sheet26%
- Uzbekistan clean sheet29%
- Uzbekistan win-to-nil21%
Model estimate
10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson
- Congo - Kinshasa0 (0%)
- Draw0 (0%)
- Uzbekistan0 (0%)
Marker = exact model %
Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.25 vs 1.35). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.
seed 3334507533 · reproducible
Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson
Balanced · 1/100How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.
Form — actual World Cup 2026 results
- D1–1@ Portugal
- L1–3vs Colombia
Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)
These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.
Squad · 26 players
No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.
- 1
Lionel MpasiLe HavreAge 31
29/0 - 16
Timothy FayuluNoahAge 26
3/0 - 21
Matthieu EpoloStandard LiègeAge 21
1/0
- 2
Aaron Wan-BissakaWest Ham UnitedAge 28
12/0 - 3
Steve KapuadiWidzew ŁódźAge 28
4/0 - 4
Axel TuanzebeBurnleyAge 28
14/1 - 5
Dylan BatubinsikaAELAge 30
14/1 - 12
Joris KayembeGenkAge 31
26/1 - 22
Chancel MbembaCLilleAge 31
109/7 - 24
Gédéon KaluluAris LimassolAge 28
28/0 - 26
Arthur MasuakuLensAge 32
45/4
- 6
Ngal'ayel MukauLilleAge 21
14/0 - 7
Nathanaël MbukuMontpellierAge 24
19/2 - 8
Samuel MoutoussamyAtromitosAge 29
58/0 - 10
Théo BongondaSpartak MoscowAge 30
38/7 - 14
Noah SadikiSunderlandAge 21
20/0 - 15
Aaron TshibolaKilmarnockAge 31
17/1 - 18
Charles PickelEspanyolAge 29
34/1 - 25
Edo KayembeWatfordAge 28
43/2
- 9
Brian CipengaCastellónAge 28
8/0 - 11
Gaël KakutaAELAge 34
31/5 - 13
Meschak EliaAlanyasporAge 28
69/12 - 17
Cédric BakambuReal BetisAge 35
70/21 - 19
Fiston MayelePyramidsAge 31
37/6 - 20
Yoane WissaNewcastle UnitedAge 29
38/9 - 23
Simon BanzaAl JaziraAge 29
15/2
Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.
Common questions
- Who will win Congo - Kinshasa vs Uzbekistan?
- Our Elo model estimates Congo - Kinshasa 34%, draw 26%, Uzbekistan 39% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
- When does Congo - Kinshasa vs Uzbekistan kick off?
- Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
- Where is Congo - Kinshasa vs Uzbekistan played?
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.