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World Cup Pulse
Ghana
1–0
FT
Panama
Jun 17, 2026, 11:00 PM UTCBMO Field · Toronto
Model estimateModel missed it
22%GhanaDraw 25%Panama53%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 135 points apart (Ghana 1673, Panama 1808), it estimates 22% / 25% / 53% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ GhanaPanama →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Ghana clean sheet19%
  • Panama clean sheet38%
  • Panama win-to-nil31%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Ghana0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Panama0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.96 vs 1.64). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3004179596 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 8/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Ghana
  • W1–0vs Panama
Panama
  • L0–1@ Ghana

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Ghana · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W1–0Panama

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Ghana vs Panama?
Our Elo model estimates Ghana 22%, draw 25%, Panama 53% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Ghana vs Panama kick off?
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Ghana vs Panama played?
BMO Field in Toronto.