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World Cup Pulse
Brazil
3–0
FT
Haiti
Jun 20, 2026, 12:30 AM UTCLincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia
Model estimateModel called it
80%BrazilDraw 15%Haiti5%

Most likely 2–0

Model read

The model reads this as a clear edge for Brazil. With Elo 373 points apart (Brazil 2062, Haiti 1689), it estimates 80% / 15% / 5% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 27% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ BrazilHaiti →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 19%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score27%
  • Brazil clean sheet69%
  • Haiti clean sheet11%
  • Brazil win-to-nil62%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Brazil0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Haiti0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.23 vs 0.37). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2908517892 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Lopsided · 45/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Brazil
  • W3–0vs Haiti
  • D1–1vs Morocco
Haiti
  • L0–3@ Brazil
  • L0–1vs Scotland

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Brazil · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W3–0Haiti

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Brazil vs Haiti?
Our Elo model estimates Brazil 80%, draw 15%, Haiti 5% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Brazil vs Haiti kick off?
Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Brazil vs Haiti played?
Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.