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World Cup Pulse
United States
4–1
FT
Paraguay
Jun 13, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCSoFi Stadium · Inglewood
Model estimateModel called it
48%United StatesDraw 26%Paraguay27%

Most likely 1–1· +80 Elo host advantage applied (United States at home)

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 11 points apart (United States 1879, Paraguay 1868), it estimates 48% / 26% / 27% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 52% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ United StatesParaguay →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score52%
  • United States clean sheet34%
  • Paraguay clean sheet22%
  • United States win-to-nil27%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • United States0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Paraguay0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.53 vs 1.07). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 4248186031 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 4/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

United States
  • W2–0vs Australia
  • W4–1vs Paraguay
Paraguay
  • W1–0@ Türkiye
  • L1–4@ United States

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

United States · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W4–1Paraguay

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win United States vs Paraguay?
Our Elo model estimates United States 48%, draw 26%, Paraguay 27% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does United States vs Paraguay kick off?
Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is United States vs Paraguay played?
SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.