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World Cup Pulse
Czechia
vs
Upcoming
Mexico
Jun 25, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCEstadio Azteca · Mexico City
Model estimate
15%CzechiaDraw 22%Mexico62%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Mexico. With Elo 210 points apart (Czechia 1778, Mexico 1988), it estimates 15% / 22% / 62% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 45% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ CzechiaMexico →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 14%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score45%
  • Czechia clean sheet16%
  • Mexico clean sheet46%
  • Mexico win-to-nil39%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Czechia0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Mexico0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.78 vs 1.83). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1150811086 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 17/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Czechia
  • D1–1vs South Africa
  • L1–2@ South Korea
Mexico
  • W1–0vs South Korea
  • W2–0vs South Africa

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Czechia vs Mexico?
Our Elo model estimates Czechia 15%, draw 22%, Mexico 62% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Czechia vs Mexico kick off?
Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Czechia vs Mexico played?
Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.