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World Cup Pulse
South Africa
vs
Upcoming
South Korea
Jun 25, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCEstadio BBVA · Guadalupe
Model estimate
12%South AfricaDraw 21%South Korea67%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward South Korea. With Elo 248 points apart (South Africa 1656, South Korea 1904), it estimates 12% / 21% / 67% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 42% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ South AfricaSouth Korea →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 14%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score42%
  • South Africa clean sheet15%
  • South Korea clean sheet51%
  • South Korea win-to-nil43%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • South Africa0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • South Korea0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.68 vs 1.92). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 3663225149 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 22/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

South Africa
  • D1–1@ Czechia
  • L0–2@ Mexico
South Korea
  • L0–1@ Mexico
  • W2–1vs Czechia

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win South Africa vs South Korea?
Our Elo model estimates South Africa 12%, draw 21%, South Korea 67% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does South Africa vs South Korea kick off?
Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is South Africa vs South Korea played?
Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.