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World Cup Pulse
Côte d’Ivoire
1–0
FT
Ecuador
Jun 14, 2026, 11:00 PM UTCLincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia
Model estimateModel missed it
24%Côte d’IvoireDraw 25%Ecuador51%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 121 points apart (Côte d’Ivoire 1861, Ecuador 1982), it estimates 24% / 25% / 51% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ Côte d’IvoireEcuador →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Côte d’Ivoire clean sheet20%
  • Ecuador clean sheet37%
  • Ecuador win-to-nil29%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Côte d’Ivoire0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Ecuador0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.00 vs 1.60). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1233776880 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 6/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Côte d’Ivoire
  • W1–0vs Ecuador
Ecuador
  • L0–1@ Côte d’Ivoire

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Côte d’Ivoire · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W1–0Ecuador

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Côte d’Ivoire vs Ecuador?
Our Elo model estimates Côte d’Ivoire 24%, draw 25%, Ecuador 51% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Côte d’Ivoire vs Ecuador kick off?
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Côte d’Ivoire vs Ecuador played?
Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.