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World Cup Pulse
Argentina
3–0
FT
Algeria
Jun 17, 2026, 1:00 AM UTCArrowhead Stadium · Kansas City
Model estimateModel called it
77%ArgentinaDraw 17%Algeria7%

Most likely 2–0

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward Argentina. With Elo 337 points apart (Argentina 2206, Algeria 1869), it estimates 77% / 17% / 7% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 2–0, with both teams to score 32% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ ArgentinaAlgeria →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 2–0 · 17%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score32%
  • Argentina clean sheet63%
  • Algeria clean sheet12%
  • Argentina win-to-nil56%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Argentina0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Algeria0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (2.14 vs 0.46). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1005961800 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 38/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Argentina
  • W3–0vs Algeria
Algeria
  • L0–3@ Argentina

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Argentina · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W3–0Algeria

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Argentina vs Algeria?
Our Elo model estimates Argentina 77%, draw 17%, Algeria 7% — most likely 2–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Argentina vs Algeria kick off?
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Argentina vs Algeria played?
Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.