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World Cup Pulse
England
4–2
FT
Croatia
Jun 17, 2026, 8:00 PM UTCAT&T Stadium · Arlington
Model estimateModel called it
59%EnglandDraw 23%Croatia18%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a lean toward England. With Elo 181 points apart (England 2120, Croatia 1939), it estimates 59% / 23% / 18% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 47% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ EnglandCroatia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score47%
  • England clean sheet43%
  • Croatia clean sheet17%
  • England win-to-nil35%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • England0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Croatia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.75 vs 0.85). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 489668445 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Leaning · 13/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

England
  • W4–2vs Croatia
Croatia
  • L2–4@ England

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

England · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W4–2Croatia

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win England vs Croatia?
Our Elo model estimates England 59%, draw 23%, Croatia 18% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does England vs Croatia kick off?
Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is England vs Croatia played?
AT&T Stadium in Arlington.