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World Cup Pulse
United States
2–0
FT
Australia
Jun 19, 2026, 7:00 PM UTCLumen Field · Seattle
Model estimateModel called it
37%United StatesDraw 26%Australia36%

Most likely 1–1· +80 Elo host advantage applied (United States at home)

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 77 points apart (United States 1879, Australia 1956), it estimates 37% / 26% / 36% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ United StatesAustralia →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score53%
  • United States clean sheet27%
  • Australia clean sheet27%
  • United States win-to-nil20%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • United States0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Australia0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.31 vs 1.29). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1772290918 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 1/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

United States
  • W2–0vs Australia
  • W4–1vs Paraguay
Australia
  • L0–2@ United States
  • W2–0vs Türkiye

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

United States · 1W · 0D · 0L

  • W2–0Australia

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win United States vs Australia?
Our Elo model estimates United States 37%, draw 26%, Australia 36% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does United States vs Australia kick off?
Friday, June 19, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is United States vs Australia played?
Lumen Field in Seattle.