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World Cup Pulse
Scotland
0–1
FT
Morocco
Jun 19, 2026, 10:00 PM UTCGillette Stadium · Foxborough
Model estimateModel called it
23%ScotlandDraw 25%Morocco52%

Most likely 0–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 129 points apart (Scotland 1863, Morocco 1992), it estimates 23% / 25% / 52% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 0–1, with both teams to score 50% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ ScotlandMorocco →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 0–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score50%
  • Scotland clean sheet20%
  • Morocco clean sheet38%
  • Morocco win-to-nil30%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Scotland0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Morocco0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (0.98 vs 1.62). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 258705621 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 7/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Scotland
  • L0–1vs Morocco
  • W1–0@ Haiti
Morocco
  • W1–0@ Scotland
  • D1–1@ Brazil

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Scotland · 0W · 0D · 1L

  • L0–1Morocco

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Scotland vs Morocco?
Our Elo model estimates Scotland 23%, draw 25%, Morocco 52% — most likely 0–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Scotland vs Morocco kick off?
Friday, June 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Scotland vs Morocco played?
Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.