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World Cup Pulse
Türkiye
0–1
FT
Paraguay
Jun 20, 2026, 3:00 AM UTCLevi's Stadium · Santa Clara
Model estimateModel missed it
43%TürkiyeDraw 26%Paraguay31%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 48 points apart (Türkiye 1916, Paraguay 1868), it estimates 43% / 26% / 31% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ TürkiyeParaguay →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score53%
  • Türkiye clean sheet31%
  • Paraguay clean sheet24%
  • Türkiye win-to-nil23%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Türkiye0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Paraguay0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.42 vs 1.18). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 1124400203 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 2/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Türkiye
  • L0–1vs Paraguay
  • L0–2@ Australia
Paraguay
  • W1–0@ Türkiye
  • L1–4@ United States

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

Türkiye · 0W · 0D · 1L

  • L0–1Paraguay

Squad · 26 players

Who featured

From the match timeline — goals, cards and substitutions — not a confirmed lineup.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Türkiye vs Paraguay?
Our Elo model estimates Türkiye 43%, draw 26%, Paraguay 31% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Türkiye vs Paraguay kick off?
Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 3:00 AM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Türkiye vs Paraguay played?
Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara.