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World Cup Pulse
Germany
vs
Upcoming
Côte d’Ivoire
Jun 20, 2026, 8:00 PM UTCBMO Field · Toronto
Model estimate
56%GermanyDraw 24%Côte d’Ivoire20%

Most likely 1–0

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 155 points apart (Germany 2016, Côte d’Ivoire 1861), it estimates 56% / 24% / 20% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–0, with both teams to score 49% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ GermanyCôte d’Ivoire →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–0 · 13%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score49%
  • Germany clean sheet40%
  • Côte d’Ivoire clean sheet18%
  • Germany win-to-nil33%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Germany0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Côte d’Ivoire0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.69 vs 0.91). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 2260067305 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 10/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Germany
  • W7–1vs Curaçao
Côte d’Ivoire
  • W1–0vs Ecuador

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Germany vs Côte d’Ivoire?
Our Elo model estimates Germany 56%, draw 24%, Côte d’Ivoire 20% — most likely 1–0. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Germany vs Côte d’Ivoire kick off?
Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Germany vs Côte d’Ivoire played?
BMO Field in Toronto.