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World Cup Pulse
Ecuador
vs
Upcoming
Germany
Jun 25, 2026, 8:00 PM UTCMetLife Stadium · East Rutherford
Model estimate
33%EcuadorDraw 26%Germany41%

Most likely 1–1

Model read

The model reads this as a near coin-flip. With Elo 34 points apart (Ecuador 1982, Germany 2016), it estimates 33% / 26% / 41% (home win / draw / away win) and a most-likely 1–1, with both teams to score 53% likely.

A strength-only Elo estimate — it doesn't account for lineups, injuries, form or weather.

Scoreline probabilitiesOur model · Elo→Poisson

↓ EcuadorGermany →
Less likelyMore likely
Most likely 1–1 · 12%. Exact values from the model's full scoreline grid — not a sampled simulation. Tap any cell for its probability.

Derived from the same grid

  • Both teams to score53%
  • Ecuador clean sheet25%
  • Germany clean sheet30%
  • Germany win-to-nil22%

Model estimate

10,000 simulated matchesOur model · Elo→Poisson

  • Ecuador0 (0%)
  • Draw0 (0%)
  • Germany0 (0%)

Marker = exact model %

Each match samples goals from the model's expected-goal rates (1.22 vs 1.39). The simulated split matches the exact analytic forecast — a live, fixed-seed visualization of the same math.

seed 432624851 · reproducible

Model convictionOur model · Elo→Poisson

Balanced · 1/100

How concentrated the three outcome probabilities are. 0 = anything could happen, 100 = near-certain.

Form — actual World Cup 2026 results

Ecuador
  • L0–1@ Côte d’Ivoire
Germany
  • W7–1vs Curaçao

Head-to-head (World Cup 2026 only)

These sides haven't met yet at this tournament — this would be their first World Cup 2026 meeting.

Squad · 26 players

No lineup is published or predicted — this is the full registered squad.

Goalkeepers
Defenders
Midfielders
Forwards

Squads as officially announced; ages as of June 11, 2026.

Common questions

Who will win Ecuador vs Germany?
Our Elo model estimates Ecuador 33%, draw 26%, Germany 41% — most likely 1–1. A transparent model estimate (not betting odds), graded against the real result.
When does Ecuador vs Germany kick off?
Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM UTC — your local kickoff time is shown above.
Where is Ecuador vs Germany played?
MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.